BYU v. Oklahoma at Dallas Cowboy Stadium
Dr. Bob’s review BYU at Oklahoma
Expectations of BYU fans were far too high last year, as expecting a perfect regular season and a BCS bowl bid with just 3 starters returning on defense made little sense. The Cougars struggled defensively as expected (0.1 yards per play worse than an average team) and facing TCU and Utah both on the road was too much to overcome. The Cougars should be more enthused about this season with the defense likely to rebound with 7 returning starters while the offense should continue to be very good despite an inexperienced line.
BYU has just one returning starter along the offensive line after returning 4 starters in 2008 and one projected starter is out for the year (LG Speredon) while the lone returning starter (L Reynolds) is out for this game. The rushing attack will probably go from average to below average despite the return of leading rusher Harvy Unga (1132 yards but a modest 4.7 ypr) and things could get worse if Reynolds is not ready to go.
The Cougars are blessed with a very good quarterback in 3rd year starter Max Hall, who averaged an impressive 7.8 yards per pass play last season (against an average slate of pass defenses that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback). Hall no longer has top target Austin Collie, who caught 106 passes and 15 touchdowns, but there is plenty of returning talent and McKay Jacobson returns to Provo after his two year mission. Jacobson averaged an impressive 19.5 yards on his 28 catches as a freshman in 2006 and should adequately fill the hole left by Collie’s departure. BYU was my 17th rated offense in 2008 but the inexperienced offensive line will probably keep the Cougars from being as good this season.
The big improvement for the Cougars will come on the defensive side of the ball after last year’s huge drop-off from a fantastic 2007 defensive unit. BYU’s defense won’t be as good as it was in rating 0.8 yards per play better than average in 2007, but a much more rugged front 7 should result in a unit that is better than average against both the run and the pass.
Oklahoma scored more points last season than any team in history, averaging 51 points per game, and the Sooners ranked #1 in my offensive ratings. However, the defense ranked 35th, allowing 5.5 yards per play to offensive units that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense. The offense returns Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford, two 1000 yard rushers in Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray and fields a dynamic receiving corps even with top pass catcher Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson both departed. The big question is an offensive line that returns just 1 starter a year after being the most experienced and most dominant line in the nation. It will be tough for the Sooners to reach last year’s heights offensively with a far less experienced line, but they’ll still be among the top 2 or 3 offensive teams in the nation.
The Oklahoma defense took a back seat last season, but the Sooners return 9 starters on the stop side of the ball in 2009 and their defensive front 7 should be outstanding with all 7 starters from last season returning, including All-American DT Gerald McCoy. The Sooners registered 3.0 sacks per game last season and should produce more pressure this season. The potentially dominating front will help the pass defense improve upon their solid 2008 numbers (6.0 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.8 yppp against an average team). The run defense wasn’t all that great last season (4.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp), but should also improve given the experience of the front 7. The Sooners were 0.5 yards per play better than average last season and I rate that unit at 1.0 yppl better than average heading into this season.
While Oklahoma ranks as my 3rd highest rated team overall the Sooners don’t appear to be 3 touchdowns better than a BYU team that will likely be improved defensively and still very good on offense. In fact, my ratings favor the Sooners by just 19 1/2 points on this semi-neutral field in Arlington (should favor Oklahoma), but I could justify a line of 21 points if BYU S Scott Johnson doesn’t play (he’s questionable with a concussion), as head coach Mendenhall stated that Johnson is “critical for our defense”. I’ll lean with BYU plus the points if Johnson plays. If not, I’d pass.
