Georgia comes to Oklahoma State
Dr. Bob breaksdown Georgia at Oklahoma St.
Georgia entered last season as the nation’s #1 rated team, which was higher than my rating of the Bulldogs as the 8th best team in the nation prior to last season. Georgia actually ended last season as the 21st best team in the land thanks to a defense that had trouble defending good offensive teams. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, the NFL’s 1st overall draft pick, is gone along with 1st round RB Knowshon Moreno, but Georgia shouldn’t be too much worse than last year’s team due to a projected improvement defensively.
Offensively the Bulldogs are going to have a tough time matching last season’s unit that rated 3rd in the nation in my ratings (behind Oklahoma and Florida) with an average of 6.9 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average attack. Senior quarterback Joe Cox is accurate and makes good decisions (just 1 interception and 0 sacks taken in 58 career pass plays), but it’s doubtful that he’ll match Stafford’s great numbers even with a very good offensive line in front of him. That line returns all 5 starters in addition to star LT Trinton Sturdivant, who missed last season with an injury after a promising freshman season in 2007. That line will also help counter the loss of Moreno’s 1400 yards at 5.6 ypr, but the rushing game will likely be a bit worse than last year. I see the Georgia offense dropping to about 20th best in the nation this season, but there is potential for even better results.
Georgia’s defense was a disappointment in 2008, ranking 42nd in my ratings while allowing 5.1 yards per play (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The Bulldogs only mustered 18 sacks in 12 regular season games before getting 6 in their bowl win against Michigan State and the defensive front will have to put more pressure on the quarterback to help out the secondary. The pass rush should be better, which will help the pass defense go from slightly better than average to good while the run defense should be solid, but not dominating. Overall, I see a solid defensive improvement from a unit that returns 8 starters and played below expectations last season.
Oklahoma State was right behind Georgia in my offensive ratings last season at #4 (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Cowboys are likely to remain near the top with quarterback Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter (1555 yards at 6.5 ypr), 1st Team All-American WR Dez Bryant (87 catches for 1480 yards and 19 TD’s), and their best offensive lineman Russell Okung (1st Team All-Big 12) all returning.
The Cowboys’ defense allowed 418 yards per game last season, but they were actually slightly better than average in allowing 5.8 yppl to a schedule of good offensive teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team. Oklahoma State should have a better pass rush (just 15 sacks last season) and a good set of linebackers should help the run defense. The enhanced pass rush is offset by a less experienced defensive backfield and the pass defense should be about the same as last season (6.3 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average team). Oklahoma State also has good special teams with Dez Bryant and Parrish Cox both scoring twice on returns last season.
The Cowboys should be 4 or 5 points better this season while Georgia is about a point worse than last season with a better defense out-weighed a bit by a less efficient offense. My math model would have favored Oklahoma State by 3 points at home against Georgia last season and my ratings favor the Cowboys by 9 points today. What makes this one tough to pick is a 19-1-1 ATS subset of a 74-36-2 ATS week 1 situation that favors Georgia. With the value on the side of the Cowboys and the technical analysis siding with Georgia I recommend passing the side in this game – although I do lean with the under at 61 or higher.
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