Joe Paterno 383-126-3
Matador, love the site! Do you think PSU will win at least 10 games this season?
A Fan
Thank you for the question. Now I’m not saying PSU will go undefeated, but the team has the balance, depth, and senior leadership to repeat as Big 10 champs and possibly go 12-0 this season. Most of the sports books have the over/under on PSU at 9.5 (I’m assuming this is why you are asking your question). Based on the team and the schedule, I would certainly take the Over. It looks to be a solid bet, and here is why it will happen.
First, PSU will win because of its pedestrian schedule and only 4 road games. Now several sites have analyzed the Lions, so I’m not going to repeat what has already been said. What I’m going to look at is the team’s opponents:
Akron: Akron is coming off of a 5-7 record and this season doesn’t look took to be any better. This will be a good opener for PSU’s young secondary because Akron is returning QB Chris Jacquemain and his top targets, WR Deryn Bower and WR Andre Jones. The Zips don’t have a proven ground game and PSU’s D line will out muscle a younger Akron line that lost All-Mac lineman Chris Kenne to graduation. This will force Akron to go to the air. The Zips are deep at backfield, PSU’s ground game will rack up yards causing Defensive Coordinate to jam the box, which will create 1 one 1 coverage in the passing game. PSU’s receivers are tall and fast. They will get open and make a lot of catches. You can expect to see Newsome throw his first collegiate TD. PSU wins by double digits.
Syracuse: PSU’s D line will control ‘Cuse’s line all game causing heavy pressure for QB Dantly who isn’t even all that impressive to begin with. Even if Greg Paulus gets a few snaps, the noise at Beaver Stadium will cause panic and confusion for the Duke transfer. PSU’s secondary will get some good practice against the Orange’s deep receiving corp. However, the line wont create enough time for Dantly to get anyone the ball. The Orange’s running game is weak and will be shutdown. PSU wins big.
Temple: Temple is coming off a 5-7 campaign, which is actually a positive for the Owls considering it was their highest total in 18 seasons. Unfortunately, they lost their top center, Alex Derenthal, and starting QB, Adam DiMichele. Their is no proven candidate to replace DiMichele. There are question marks at all skill positions. Mark D’Onofrio is returning nine D starters who are going to be on the field for a majority of the game because the lack of the Owl’s offense. PSU will expose every aspect of the Owls’ program. Even in good years with strong starters, PSU beats the Owls. Just look at their head to head record.
Iowa: The vacation is over, this is PSU’s first test of the season. At this point, Iowa would have played their tough rival game against Iowa State, followed by a rare PAC-10 match-up against Arizona. Iowa will be battled tested and possibly banged up. PSU will rely on their ground game and will have the advantage over the Hawkeye’s front line who need to replace Matt Kroul and King. Iowa has a very strong secondary in Sash, Greenwood, and Spivey. PSU will not have a strong air attack against this group. Though PSU has a young and inexperienced secondary, Iowa doesn’t have a strong WR presence. Johnson-Koulianos is good but inconsistent. TE Tony Moeaki is a star, but is injury prone. So a bad secondary goes against a bad set of hands. The winner of this match-up wins the game. Even with Stanzi and his accuracy, the passing numbers will be low.
As for the running game, Hampton must build from his breakout freshman year performance. He is solid and he doesn’t have a lot of prospects backing him up. Hampton’s record setting season was certainly a part of Greene’s presence. PSU can win this game because it’s a home game (Iowa has not been traveling well as of recent), it’s a revenge match, and PSU’s ground game is just better. Good ball control, clock control, and field position, that’s what wins this games. PSU eeks by Iowa.
@Illinois: This is PSU’s first road game and it will be a tough test because Illinois has the best air attack out of any team it plays. Juice Williams to Arrellious Benn will be tough to defend as it was last season with an experienced secondary. PSU must hope the fighting Illini are banged up because this game is right after the OSU game.
PSU should stop Illinois’ ground game and force the pass making it a 1 dimensional offense. Illinois’ line and LB corp have talent, but are untested. Again, PSU will rely heavily on the ground game. If PSU’s WRs don’t step it up against a strong secondary, it will be a close game. PSU’s control of the line and double coverage on Benn wins this game.
Eastern Illinois: This game shouldn’t even be on the schedule. PSU returns home to face Ohio Valley Conference Eastern Illinois. Eastern Illinois was second to last in passing last season and will show no signs of improvement this season. We will see a lot of Kevin Newsome and the 2nd team early in this game. PSU wins big.
Minnesota: Minnesota comes into Happy Valley with a weak secondary and a meager ground game. Last season the running game ranked 104th. Brewster will want to improve that ranking but it wont happen this season with Eskridge running the ball (give him another season, then he will become a household name). PSU’s line on both sides of the ball will dominate. Clark will have a field day throwing to his six foot plus receivers. The front line will control and PSU will win in double digits.
@Michigan: PSU travels to Ann Arbor where they haven’t won much; however, this season PSU will win like it did in the mid-90’s. Michigan still has questions at QB. There are no threats at WR and the team will rely heavily on RB Brandon Minor (who has no solid back-up). The Defense will be lead by Brandon Graham, but there isn’t enough of him to go around to shut down Royster or Green. Paterno should balance the running and passing attack as both will be effective. Michigan does not have the offensive play-makers to score enough points to win this one. PSU wins for the second straight season.
@Northwestern: This would typically be a trap game as NW will have one of the stronger defenses in the league with 8 returning starters. This makes for a strong and experienced line and an even stronger secondary. Northwestern’s achilles heal will be its offense. Suttons departure has left a huge void at RB. The receiving corp needs to be rebuilt or just found. There is very little depth or potential. PSU comes out of Ryan Field with a win.
OSU: OSU comes to Happy Valley for a clash with Big Ten rival Penn State. The last time OSU was at Happy Valley, it wasn’t pretty for the Nittany Lions. Penn State has not won back-to-back games against the Buckeyes, but this season that may change. By the time these two teams meet, we will know how good Pryor and Posey are. The OSU WRs have the potential to be monsters and if they exceed their expectations, PSU’s young secondary will have a long day. The best hope for PSU to win this game is to spy and pressure Pryor even though he is expected to pass more than run. PSU’s D should be up to the task to stop Dan Hernon and co. This game again depends on Pryor’s growth and how well the skill players actually grow.
As for PSU, their WRs will have a hard time getting open against Coleman and Russell. I expect to see a lot of carries from both Royster and Green. Also, expect big days out of either Shuler or Quarless. The O-line is young, but by the time OSU comes into town, they will be ready.
To the end, both teams have excellent talent. I would call this a coin flip, but I’ll give the edge to Penn State because it’s a home game.
Indiana: PSU does not lose to the Hoosiers. The Lions will continue the streak this season.
@Michigan State: The regular season concludes at Spartan Stadium. Last season, the Spartans could have won a share of the Big 10 title with a win over PSU but instead got crushed 18-49. This year’s defense will be better but the offense wont be as a strong. The workhorse Ringer is gone, and Spartan fans hope one of the six RB candidates will fill the void. If not, PSU will once again overpower MSU as it has successfully done the past 5 seasons going 4-1 (PSU should have gone 5-0, but two seasons ago the team blew a 4th quarter lead).
To recap, Penn State plays very well at home. With 8 home games and only 4 road games they are a lock to win against Akron, Syracuse, Temple, Eastern Illinois, Minnesota, and Indiana. That is 6 games right there.
They should beat Northwestern, Minnesota and Michigan State which would get them to 9 wins (even if the lose one of those 3, that gives you 8 wins).
So now you are betting if PSU will win one of the following three games: Iowa, Illinois and Ohio State. I think they will. The should win at least 2 of those 3 games. This will push PSU to 10 and over so the team will cover the Over.
I’m not advocating gambling, but if were to bet, the Over would be a good pick.
