A look at Nebraska

Former Nebraska defensive coordinator Bo Pelini was brought in as head coach after a disappointing 2007 season under Bill Callahan, whose final team was very good offensively (6.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack), but went from good to horrible defensively, allowing 6.1 yppl to a schedule of mostly good offensive teams that would average a combined 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. That 2007 team was actually better than average from the line of scrimmage, but couldn’t overcome a -17 turnover margin on the way to a 5-7 record.

Pelini’s first team was improved defensively, but they still rated as worse than average defending the run (4.7 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yprp against an average team) and defending the pass (6.6 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppp against an average defense). Overall, the Cornhuskers were 0.3 yppl worse than an average FBS team defensively, which is bad news for a team playing in the offensively loaded Big 12. This year’s team should continue to make strides defensively with 7 returning starters, including 1st Team All-Big 12 DT Ndamukong Suh who led the team in tackles (very rare for a defensive lineman) while recording 7.5 sacks and 11.5 other tackles for loss. Junior DE Pierre Allen showed signs of greatness last year and DE Barry Turner is back on the line after missing most of last season with an injury. The Huskers’ defensive line is very good at getting to the quarterback and they should be better at stopping the run this season. The entire defensive backfield returns and I expect them to not give up as many big plays (13.8 yards per catch is way too high, as 12.0 ypc is average). I project Nebraska to go from 0.3 yppl worse than average to 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, but the improvement could be even more if the secondary limits the big plays even more than I expect.

There is little question that the offense will continue to be the star of the Nebraska team, but it’s doubtful that new quarterback Zac Lee can duplicate the passing numbers of Joe Ganz, who completed 68% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt and only 11 picks (2.6%). The top two receivers from last season, Nate Swift and Todd Peterson, also depart, but I expect Lee to be good in his first season given his outstanding accuracy and the attention that will be given to running back Roy Helu, who has run for 1012 yards at 6.0 ypr in 2 seasons. The rushing attack should be better than it was in 2008 (5.1 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) now that Helu is getting more carries since Marlon Lucky averaged a poor 4.1 ypr last season. In fact, in the 4 games last season in which Helu was the main ball carrier the Huskers were 0.9 yprp better than average (5.9 yprp against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp). The dismissal of Quentin Castille hurts the depth a bit, but redshirt freshman Okafor and Ward should perform at a decent level. The offensive line looks pretty solid and overall I expect the Cornhuskers’ attack to be about 0.5 yppl better than average this season, which ranks them at 25th in the nation after ranking 13th in my ratings last season.

Nebraska should be about the same overall from the line of scrimmage, with better defensive numbers and offensive numbers that aren’t quite as good, but the Huskers should have better luck in the turnover department (-11 last year and -17 in 2007). Nebraska also has excellent special teams and, while they could be a better overall team, I’ll call for them to be about as good as they were in 2008, which puts them in the hunt for the Big 12 North title.

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