Wisconsin should edge by Iowa
WISCONSIN (-2.5) 24 #11 Iowa 23
Iowa comes into this game unbeaten and Wisconsin is looking to bounce back from their first loss of the year, a closer than the score indicates 13-31 setback at Ohio State (they were out-gained only 4.1 yppl to 4.8 yppl by the Buckeyes). The Badgers have faced a tough schedule of teams and have out-gained those opponents 5.9 yards per play to 5.3 yppl while rating at 0.6 yppl better than average on offense and 0.3 yppl better than average defensively. Iowa, meanwhile, has also faced a tougher than average schedule and out-gained those teams 5.5 yppl to 4.8 yppl while rating at 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and a very good 0.9 yppl better than average on defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team). These teams match up pretty evenly and my math model favors Wisconsin by 1 point.
