Nevada travels to South Bend to face Notre Dame
Dr. Bob’s review of Nevada at Notre Dame
Saturday, Sep-05 3:30 PM (EST)
Favorite: Notre Dame -14.5
Total: 62.0
Notre Dame has traditionally been overrated when pre-season expectations are positive, as the Irish are 17-30-1 ATS this decade when coming off a winning season. Notre Dame got into the winning column last season with an impressive 49-21 rout at Hawaii in which quarterback Jimmy Clausen was perfect (completed 22 of 26 passes with 4 dropped balls). That win set up this season’s expectations and a national ranking, but don’t forget that the Irish only out-gained their opponents 5.3 yards per play to 5.1 yppl in 2008 and only out-scored them by 2.5 points per game.
I do expect Notre Dame to be better this season, as Jimmy Clausen is certainly talented enough to continue to improve upon last year’s solid numbers (6.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) and the defense could be very good now that the highly ranked recruits of recent years are ready to take the field and contribute.
The problems for the Irish are the running game, which averaged just 4.0 yards per rushing play in 2008 (against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and the run defense, which may only be a bit better than average. Notre Dame certainly will have no problems defending the pass with 3 returning starters in the secondary and top CB Darrin Walls filling in the open spot after missing last season. The Irish yielded just 5.2 yppp last season (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average team) and their pass defense should rank among the best in the nation this year. Overall, I rate the offense at 0.4 yppl better than average and the defense at 0.8 yppl better than average.
Overall the Irish look to be about 7 points better than they were last season and they actually do deserve a top-25 ranking heading into this season (I rate them 24th).
Nevada has an explosive offense that is led by dual threat quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who has averaged 7.2 yards per pass play and ran for 1941 yards at 8.3 yards per rushing play in two seasons. With Kaepernick leading the way, the Wolf Pack averaged 6.5 yppl in 2008 against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack. The attack could be even better this season with former All-WAC RB Luke Lippincott (1980 yards at 5.2 ypr) joining last year’s 1st Team All-WAC RB Vai Taua, who ran for 1521 yards at 6.4 ypr in 2008. I actually don’t think that Kaepernick will be as good throwing the football as he has been the last 2 seasons with big play target Marko Mitchell (61 catches at 18.7 ypc) having run out of eligibility. But, Nevada will still be among the best offensive teams in the nation and I rate than at 1.1 yppl better than average.
While Nevada’s offense continues to rack up yards and points it will be up to the defense to improve upon last seasons 6.2 yppl allowed and -0.9 yppl rating. The defensive front is good and only allowed 4.6 yards per rushing play last season (3 of 4 starting DL’s return) and I expect significant improvement from the secondary that returns 3 of 4 starters. The Wolf Pack surrendered far to many big plays, resulting in a horrendous 14.8 yards per catch, but they only allowed 53.6% completions so it’s not like they can’t cover. The pass defense would improve 0.9 yppp if they allowed 13.0 ypc this year (which is still worse than the national average of 12.0 ypc) and I rate the Nevada defense at only 0.3 yppl worse than average heading into this season. Nevada’s pass defense depends on getting pressure on the quarterback and that will be a key in this game, as Notre Dame’s receivers will get open if the Irish offensive line give Clausen enough time in the pocket.
The opening line on this game was Notre Dame by 10 points, but the Irish hype has led to a two touchdown number and my ratings favor Notre Dame by 12 1/2 points. I’ll lean with Nevada plus the points because of the line move.
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