Oregon is Poised for Revenge
Dr. Bob breaksdown Oregon at Boise St.
Thursday, Sep-03 07:15 PM
Favorite: Boise St. -3.5
Total: 64.0
Boise State was one point away from a perfect 13-0 season in 2008, losing their bowl game 16-17 to a very good TCU team. If the Broncos can open the season with a home win over Oregon then they’ll have a good chance at another unbeaten regular season even though they probably won’t be quite as good this season.
Boise was great offensively last season even after accounting from the strength (or lack thereof) of their opponents, as the Broncos averaged 6.5 yards per play in 12 games against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack. Quarterback Kellen Moore returns after posting incredible numbers as a freshman (69.4% completions and 8.6 yards per attempt), but I don’t think Moore will be quite as good with 4 of his top 5 targets from 2008 not gone, including big play threat Vinny Perretta. The rushing attack should be just as good without Boise legend Ian Johnson, as Jeremy Avery (1286 yards at 6.0 ypr in 2 seasons) and DJ Harper (641 yards at 4.5 ypr) are more than capable of picking up the slack. Boise’s attack was 0.9 yppl better than average last season and I’ll project the Broncos at +0.6 yppl in 2009.
The Broncos’ defense could pick up the slack if 5 new starters in the defensive front 7 can fill in admirably around star DE Ryan Winterswyk. The secondary was among the best in the nation last season and that unit is loaded with talent again this year and should make it tough on opposing teams to throw the ball effectively. Overall, the Broncos allowed just 4.5 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team and this year’s unit could be even better – although I’ll rate them the same heading into this season.
Oregon has revenge on their minds tonight after losing at home to the Broncos last season 32-37. The Ducks weren’t the offensive machine for that early season game as they were later in the year, as quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was hurt and limited to just 4 passes and one scramble. Masoli ended last season as one of the nation’s most exciting dual threat quarterbacks, as he came on strong to average a solid 6.5 yards per pass play (against good defensive teams that would allow just 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback) while adding 818 yards on 112 rushing plays. Masoli will be without last year’s top receiver Terrence Scott, but highly touted USC transfer Jamere Holland makes his debut and the Masoli’s numbers should be at least as good this season. The Ducks’ rushing attack was among the best in the nation in 2007 with two 1000 yard rushers that both averaged over 7 yards per run. LeGarrette Blount is back after gaining 1002 yards at 7.3 ypr, but Jeremiah Johnson’s 1201 yards at 7.1 ypr are now in the NFL. Blount will obviously get more carries, which is good, but it’s very doubtful that the backups will be as good as Johnson was and the Ducks’ lost their two best linemen to graduation. The rushing numbers should go down a bit but the Ducks’ ground game will still be among the best in the nation and the offense as a whole will be explosive once again. I rated Oregon’s attack as the 5th best in the nation last year and they’ll be about as good this season.
Oregon’s defense loses 3 stars from last year’s unit in DE Nick Reed (13 sacks), CB Jarius Byrd (19 passes defended) and FS Patrick Chung and only 5 starters return. However, the return to health of CB Walter Thurmond will help offset the losses, as Thurmond is primed for a great senior season after playing hurt most of last season. Thurmond still managed to defend 13 passes (8 broken up and 5 interceptions), but I expect him to return to his 2007 form in which he broke up an incredible 23 passes. The pass rush won’t be as good without Reed and the run defense will be a bit off too, but defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti’ defenses have ranged between 0.4 yards per play better than average and 0.6 yppl better than average in each of the last 6 years and I see no reason why he won’t assemble another good unit.
These teams both rate about the same in my ratings coming into the season and those ratings favor Boise State by 3 1/2 points using a standard home field advantage. However, the home field advantage on the blue turf at Bronco Stadium is hardly standard. Boise State is an incredible 40-16-1 ATS all time at home, including 17-2 ATS in games when they are not favored by more than 12 points. Oregon, however, applies to a 50-21-3 ATS early season road revenge situation. This is another game that is best to pass – although this one will be fun to watch.
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